Blockbuster or Flop?

Neural networks are drastically changing the way we do things and leading us into the future in great strides. There is virtually limitless potential when it comes to this new technology. That being said, neural networks are not perfect, and still have a long way to go before their bright promises become realities. This technology is still in the early stages of development, but its fairly impressive statistical accuracy has found practical use in niches of the marketplace as they await further development.

One very interesting market in which neural networking has proved useful is the movie industry. When a big Hollywood movie producer expresses interest in sinking hundreds of millions dollars into the next hopeful box office smash, he would like to know, or at least have some assurance that the movie will be successful beforehand. Entertainment industry market researcher Edith Bodnar came up with the idea that an artificial neural network can learn the seven key parameters that influence the likelihood of a movie's success, and judge a movie based on these criteria before it ever goes into production. Ramesh Sharda, a computer expert from Oklahoma State University, employed such a neural network, using data on 834 movies released between 1998 and 2002. Each movie was evaluated by this ANN based on

• "Star value" of the cast
• movie's age rating
• time of release against the competition
• film genre
• degree of special effects
• sequel or not
• # of screens expected to open in
  

This information was used to place the movie into one of nine categories from "flop"(< $1M) to "blockbuster"(>$200M). Of the data analyzed, the system reported revenue category of the films dead-on accurate 37% of the time. Although not incredibly accurate, it did report accurately to within one category to the left or right an impressive 75% of the time. While not a perfect science, it is certainly a "powerful decision aid," according to Bodnar, and a bright and promising illustration of where neural networks are headed in the future.






"Neural Network Sorts the Blockbusters from the Flops." 15 December 2005. New Scientist Magazine issue 2530